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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."